In the wake of the United States bombing Iranian territory for the very first time, Tehran is considering its options.
Iran is weighing up how to retaliate to Washington striking three of its nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan over the weekend.
Among the retaliatory actions is attacking US assets in the region, a move that Iran has begun doing after striking an American airbase in Qatar on Monday.
It could also follow through on threats to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, an international pact that promotes nuclear disarmament and the use of nuclear energy for peaceful means.
Or – in a move similar to its Houthi allies in Yemen – it could damage global trade by disrupting the flow of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Houthis disrupted international trade in the Red Sea for over a year, firing missiles and drones at vessels, in an act of solidarity with Palestinians under Israeli bombardment.
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Over the weekend, Iran’s parliament voted to take a similar approach in the Strait of Hormuz. Ultimately, the vote was non-binding, and the power for such a decision lies with Iranian security officials.
But it’s a threat that has been taken very seriously by the international community, with Washington, the European Union, the UK and other global players urging against it.
While closing the highly strategic strait would give Tehran a powerful lever, analysts believe that it could be Iran itself that suffers the most from such a move.
Total or partial disruption
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime channel, around 33km at its narrowest point, between the Musandam peninsula in Oman and Iran.
It connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, via the Gulf of Oman. It is considered to be within the territorial waters of both Iran and Oman.
The strait is described as the most significant oil chokepoint in the world, with around a fifth of global oil output passing through it, and a third of global liquified natural gas (LNG).
Roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass through the strait every day, of which around 14 million barrels are crude oil and six million are petroleum products.
In addition, more than 10 billion cubic feet of LNG pass through the strait, much of which comes from Qatar.
There are a number of different scenarios for how Iran could take action in the Strait of Hormuz.
One of them is Iran directly closing the strait, according to Noam Raydan, an expert on maritime risks in the Middle East.
Closing it would likely involve mining the shipping lanes with explosive munitions that would explode if they detect passing traffic. Tehran is believed to own thousands of Chinese-made sea mines.
A second option would be “carrying out individual maritime attacks”, Raydan told Middle East Eye, “aimed at commercial vessels with direct or indirect links to the US, for instance”.
‘Improved relations with Gulf states would be jeopardised by any attempt to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz’
– Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, analyst
Umud Shokri, an energy strategist and visiting fellow at George Mason University, said that such limited or sporadic attacks, or “acts of harassment targeting oil infrastructure, commercial vessels or maritime navigation systems”, were much more likely.
“These actions would aim to raise pressure without fully closing the vital chokepoint,” Shokri told MEE. “It would escalate regional tensions and drive up global energy prices, while avoiding the devastating blowback of a full-scale closure.”
A third option would be to continue issuing verbal threats, as Tehran is currently doing, without following through on them.
“These appear to be sufficient to keep maritime risks high, increase freight rates and keep oil prices jittery,” said Raydan.
The strait has never been completely closed off, though it has faced disruptions in the past.
During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, Iraqi forces attacked Iranian oil tankers near the strait. While Iran threatened to close off Hormuz, it didn’t follow through. The war initially led to a 25 percent drop in commercial shipping and a sharp oil price hike.
More recently, Iran has seized some ships in both the Gulf as well as the Strait of Hormuz.
In the Gulf, Raydan noted that Iran had attacked ships in response to oil disputes with the US, including the seizures of the Greek tankers Delta Poseidon and Prudent Warrior in May 2022.
They also seized MSC Aries near the Strait of Hormuz in April 2024. “This ship is believed to have been targeted due to indirect links to Israel,” Raydan added.
Gulf, Iran and Asia most impacted
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar are all reliant on the Strait of Hormuz for exporting hydrocarbons.
“Closing the Strait of Hormuz would not benefit Iran or its allies, as well as its relations with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries which appear to be in a good standing so far,” Raydan said.
While Iran and Gulf countries have historically been major foes, they have sought to build bridges in recent years. That included restoring diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia two years ago.
“Iranian officials may also be mindful of the fact that their improved relations with Gulf states would be jeopardised by any attempt to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz,” Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, an expert on energy in the Middle East and fellow at the Baker Institute, told MEE.
Iraq would also be severely impacted.
“I would keep my eye on Iraq – OPEC’s second biggest oil producer that greatly relies on oil exports from Basra – via Hormuz – for revenues,” said Raydan. “Iraq is also home to some Iran-aligned armed groups that could intervene in the current conflict.”
It’s not just Arab neighbours who export oil through the Strait of Hormuz – Iran itself is reliant on the waterway.
“Iran has not stopped exporting its own oil via Hormuz since the conflict began, and these are sources of revenues for Tehran,” said Raydan.
‘Iran has not stopped exporting its own oil via Hormuz since the conflict began’
– Noam Raydan, maritime expert
Ninety percent of Iran’s oil exports are to China, which receives it through the strait. Beijing is one of Iran’s key partners on the global stage, so such a move would be both economically and politically destructive.
The oil importers most affected by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are all in Asia.
“Roughly 84 percent of the oil passing through the strait is destined for Asian markets,” Shokri said. “India receives nearly 40 percent of its crude oil through the strait.”
As well as China and India, Japan and South Korea receive large amounts of oil via the strait.
While Saudi Arabia and the UAE have operational pipelines that can circumvent the Strait of Hormuz, Iran does not.
Saudi Aramco operates the East-West crude oil pipeline, while the UAE can connect its onshore oil fields to the Fujairah export terminal on the Gulf of Oman, bypassing Hormuz.
While Iran has built the Goreh-Jask pipeline and the Jask export terminal on the Gulf of Oman, it has not been used since 2021 and does not have the capacity to bypass the strait.
Raydan noted that in the event that Iran can no longer export oil – for example if its export infrastructure was damaged significantly in an attack – then the risk of more serious Iranian actions along the strait may increase.
But most analysts agree that it’s quite unlikely that we will see a full shutdown.
Ulrichsen does not believe Iran “can or will” close the Strait of Hormuz completely. “This is a standard threat that has been made by officials at various points over the past 40 years,” he stated.
“While Tehran may continue to use threats or limited disruptions as strategic leverage, it is likely to avoid actions that could provoke harsh responses from powerful regional and global actors,” Shokri said.
