When Azerbaijan defeated Armenia in the second Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin emerged as a powerful mediator.
The Kremlin helped broker a ceasefire deal that forced Armenia to accept a painful retreat from most of the territories it once controlled within Azerbaijan.
At the time, Putin could not hide his disdain for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, whose deepening ties with the West unsettled Moscow.
Despite traditional Russian support for Armenia in its conflict with Baku, by 2020 Moscow clearly favoured Azerbaijan. Russian authorities regularly released official statements that sided with Baku’s position.
To cement ties further, Putin made history in 2024 by conducting the first-ever Russian presidential visit to Azerbaijan.
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“Our countries continue to act as allies, friends, close partners and neighbours,” said Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev during their landmark meeting.
Less than a year later, however, the mood has completely shifted.
‘What happened, Mr Putin?’
“What happened, Mr Putin? Are you so worried that Azerbaijan has become a strong state, has recovered its lands, restored sovereignty, and that President Ilham Aliyev is recognised globally?” asked Azerbaijan’s state TV channel in a broadcast earlier this week.
“You are used to dominating peoples who were forcibly included in Russia,” it continued.
“Whether in tsarist or Soviet times, Russians considered themselves the master race, while others were second-class citizens. Even though those empires are gone, the mindset remains.”
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Tensions first became apparent after Russia accidentally shot down an Azerbaijani Airlines plane in December, killing 38 people near Grozny.
At the time, Russian authorities said air defence systems were active to counter potential Ukrainian drone attacks on Chechnya.
Relations deteriorated further after Russian police, during the course of a murder investigation in Yekaterinburg, raided a house and killed Azerbaijani-born brothers Ziyaddin and Guseyn Safarov, injuring several others.
A post-mortem conducted in Azerbaijan found the brothers were actually tortured in police custody.
Baku responded strongly, first cancelling a visit by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk, then suspending all planned cultural events with Russian state and private institutions.
Azerbaijani police raided the Russian state news agency Sputnik Azerbaijan and arrested its editor-in-chief and director, casting them as spies.
Media outlets also released footage showing several Russian citizens, accused of drug trafficking and other crimes, being roughly handled by police and publicly ridiculed as they were pushed into a van.
Some Azerbaijani reports even suggested that Baku could close Russian schools in the country.
‘Azerbaijan has not forgotten the downed civilian aircraft, and Russia’s silence will not be tolerated’
– Tural Ganjali, member of the Azerbaijani parliament
“In today’s Russia, chauvinism, discrimination and Islamophobia are now open and state-enabled,” said Tural Ganjali, a member of the Azerbaijani parliament.
“Migrants and non-Russians are coerced into war, threatened and blackmailed. This is a widespread policy, orchestrated and encouraged by the Russian government.”
Rusif Huseynov, director of the Baku-based think tank Topchubashov Center, believes several factors have contributed to the growing crisis between the two countries.
“While Baku avoids joining anti-Russian coalitions or endorsing western sanctions, it does not hesitate to take a firm stance in bilateral settings, where its rhetoric and actions can be notably bold,” he told MEE.
“From Moscow’s perspective, Azerbaijan’s independent and balanced foreign policy has often been a source of frustration.”
Huseynov notes that Baku still expects a full investigation into the downing of its airliner, formal acknowledgment and appropriate compensation, while Moscow insists on handling the matter behind closed doors.
“Azerbaijan has not forgotten the downed civilian aircraft, and Russia’s silence will not be tolerated,” Ganjali said.
“From barring Azerbaijani MPs from entering Russia to state-backed cyberattacks, anti-Azerbaijani hostility is growing. These are not isolated incidents; they are part of a broader hostile pattern.”
Deliberately seeking escalation
Some western diplomats believe Azerbaijan is deliberately seeking escalation with Russia in order to extract concessions from Moscow on other issues.
One western diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, told MEE that with Iran weakened after Israel’s 12-day war, Baku has more freedom to address Russian demands regarding the peace agreement with Armenia.
‘Azerbaijan’s diversified foreign policy – anchored in alliances with Turkey and Pakistan, strategic partnerships with Israel and China – has reduced its reliance on Moscow’
– Rusif Huseynov, Baku-based analyst
Several Azerbaijani media outlets reported that Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan are close to a deal that would sideline Russia in the so-called Zangezur Corridor, which connects Azerbaijan’s mainland to its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenia.
The original 2020 agreement gave Russian FSB officers control over the corridor.
An Armenian official told MEE that Yerevan’s position remains unchanged: Armenia opposes any foreign control over its sovereign territory and is open to working with other countries to open trade routes, but there is no new deal as reported. The official called such reports “fake”.
Several regional diplomats told MEE that Turkey has been quietly encouraging Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign a peace agreement.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hosted Pashinyan last month in Istanbul in the first-ever official visit by an Armenian leader since the end of the Cold War.
“Azerbaijan’s diversified foreign policy – anchored in alliances with Turkey and Pakistan, strategic partnerships with Israel, and more recently China – has further reduced its reliance on Moscow,” Huseynov said.
“Russian officials are likely unsettled by Turkey’s expanding political and military influence in the South Caucasus, especially through its close ties with Azerbaijan.”
Huseynov also pointed out that Baku is leveraging its geopolitical influence against Russia, which is isolated due to the Ukraine war and sanctions.
He explained that Moscow needs Baku more than ever, as it seeks markets and transport corridors to the south for access to Turkey, Iran and the Persian Gulf.
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Another diplomat noted that Russia’s growing ties with Georgia are a concern for both Azerbaijan and Turkey, while Armenia increasingly seeks closer relations with the West.
Some in Azerbaijan are calling for stronger security cooperation with Turkey.
Eldar Namazov, a former head of the presidential administration of Heydar Aliyev, told Azerbaijani media on Wednesday that Baku is under pressure from both Iran and Russia, which he sees as a threat to Azerbaijan’s security.
He recalled that Turkey and Azerbaijan signed the Shusha Declaration in June 2021, which obliges both countries to defend each other in case of aggression.
“A decision should be made to deploy the largest Turkish military base in the region, in Azerbaijan, in the near future,” he said.
“For neighbours who do not understand, part of this base would be enough to serve a population of 250 million.
“It could even be leased to our other ally, the Pakistani Air Force, which possesses nuclear weapons.”
This approach is known in political science as “peace through strength”.
