At the height of Israel’s war against Iran, Kambiz Hosseini – an anti-establishment figure working for the Saudi-funded media outlet Iran International – told his followers that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would soon be killed.
On 19 June, when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Khamenei’s death would mean the end of the Islamic Republic, Hosseini urged his followers to wait just a little longer, writing: “You have waited 46 years, 4 months, and 29 days; wait three more days.”
For three days, nothing happened. Then, on the fourth, everything changed.
Less than two hours after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, Hosseini posted anxiously on X: “If Khamenei survives in these remaining hours, he will massacre the people! He will take revenge on everyone.”
And Khamenei survived.
It wasn’t only Hosseini and his followers, who supported foreign intervention to overthrow the Islamic Republic, who were worried.
Many Iranians inside and outside the country soon witnessed a wave of repression, arrests and executions after the war ended.
On the morning of 24 June, just hours after the ceasefire took effect, three people were hanged in Urmia prison. Idris Aali, Azad Shojaei, and Rasoul Ahmad had been accused of collaborating with Mossad before the war and were swiftly executed.
‘What threatens the establishment is not a foreign enemy, but the opposition and ordinary people inside Iran’
– Mahmoud Amiri-Moghaddam, Iran Human Rights
In the days before that, three other prisoners – Mohammad Amin Mahdavi Shayesteh, Majid Mossayebi, and Esmail Fekri – were also executed in different prisons on charges of spying for Israel.
At the same time, Iranian state media announced that over 700 people had been arrested across the country for “espionage”, “spreading anti-establishment propaganda”, or “collaborating with hostile governments”.
Mahmoud Amiri-Moghaddam, head of the Oslo-based Iran Human Rights organisation, put the number at least 900 in an interview with Middle East Eye.
He also pointed to a new law passed by Iran’s parliament during the war, and its details revealed on 28 June, known as the “intensifying punishment for agents collaborating with hostile states” bill. According to him, this law is meant to increase pressure on citizens and provide legal justification for future executions.
“The real targets are not Mossad agents, but ordinary people. Under this law, anyone can be accused of ‘corruption on earth’ and executed. Even talking to people outside Iran could now be considered espionage,” he explained.
“What threatens the establishment is not a foreign enemy, but the opposition and ordinary people inside Iran.”
Ceasefires and executions
For Iranians opposed to the government, ceasefires do not bring relief.
The last time the Islamic Republic agreed to a ceasefire was in 1988, ending the eight-year Iran-Iraq war.
What followed was the mass execution of thousands of political prisoners, some of whom were nearing the end of their sentences and awaiting release.
At the time, the killings didn’t receive media coverage due to censorship. Even years later, when the world learned about it, the perpetrators openly defended their actions.
Now, many establishment critics fear that history is about to repeat itself.
A former political prisoner who survived the 1988 massacre, who asked to remain anonymous, told MEE that although today’s circumstances may be different, the repression has already begun.
They pointed to the widespread arrests of political activists and dissidents reported in recent days.
Among those detained are Hassan and Hossein Ronaghi in Tehran; Noyan Hejazi and Nazanin Abedini in Jouibar; Jalal Khodamoradi in the Kurdish city of Sanandaj; blogger Donya Hosseini from Khuzestan province; and four Kurdish activists in Piranshahr.
According to this former prisoner, after intense conflict with a foreign enemy, the establishment always tries to eliminate any opposition at home.
“The regime knows it has been defeated by Israel in many military and intelligence areas, and for this reason, it is unwilling to take the risk of any internal dissent,” they said.
“It fears this could bring down a 46-year-old dictatorship.”
They also recalled the wave of executions after the suppression of the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement in 2022, when protesters were swiftly tried and executed without access to lawyers.
“Since 1979, this religious dictatorship has relied on executions to deal with opponents. By incorporating Shia jurisprudence into its system, it has even given religious legitimacy to these killings,” they concluded.
“More executions are certainly coming, and the regime will resort to killing and intimidating ordinary people to ensure its survival.”
One of the most evident signs of increasing repression is the return of Basij checkpoints to the streets.
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The Basij is part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Its members, known as “volunteers”, are rewarded with government jobs, university admissions, low-interest loans, and other benefits.
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The Basij have been deployed in many incidents the government wishes to distance itself from, such as attacks on Tehran University dormitories and the British and Saudi embassies in recent years. They also carry out arbitrary arrests during protests.
Just two days after Israel attacked Iran, the government announced the return of Basij checkpoints. Their reappearance came with attacks by plainclothes agents on non-political public figures critical of the establishment.
One such case was Voria Ghafouri, a former Iranian national football player. His cafe in western Tehran was shut down by seven plainclothes officers, without explanation or a court order.
Meanwhile, the state has also been sending threatening mass text messages to citizens, warning them against following anti-government media outside Iran.
One such message, seen by MEE, warned recipients that if they did not delete likes, comments, or follows from certain pages, they would face legal consequences.
One citizen, who received the message, said he didn’t even use his phone to read the news.
“I have two mobile lines, one for work and one personal. I got the text message on the phone that I wasn’t even using for news,” he said.
Public intimidation
These intimidation tactics are not just isolated acts of harassment but part of a broader system of fear used to silence dissent and justify more extreme forms of punishment, including executions.
According to Amiri-Moghaddam, the establishment often uses vague or fabricated charges like espionage, “propaganda against the regime,” or “corruption on earth” to legitimise these crackdowns.
Amiri-Moghaddam also warned that if the international community remains silent, Iran’s rulers may resort to mass executions.
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“The Islamic Republic has always followed one core principle: preserving the establishment. What has consistently threatened its survival is the domestic opposition,” he said.
He added that one of the highest waves of executions occurred in the country during the 2015 nuclear negotiations with western countries.
“At that time, we warned EU representatives, but they told us their main focus was the nuclear deal, so they ignored the rest,” he explained.
He noted a similar pattern in the eight months leading up to the recent war with Israel.
With attention on Iran’s presidential election, Trump’s return to power, and new nuclear talks, Iran used the last year to execute over a thousand people.
There were at least 343 executions in Iran in the first four months of 2025 – a 75 percent increase over the same period in 2024, according to Iran Human Rights.
