TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Former Rep. Matt Gaetz, a close ally of President Donald Trump, is still considering a run for governor of Florida — a twist that complicates a Republican primary that already has a Trump-endorsed candidate and, potentially, the current governor’s wife.
Trump has backed Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., for the 2026 race, and a Trump adviser said the endorsement of Donalds — and only Donalds — “is set” no matter what happens. But with Gaetz and Gov. Ron DeSantis’ wife, Casey, in the wings, the field remains unsettled.
Trump won Florida by 13 percentage points last year, and while he is considered a kingmaker in the state, his support for Donalds has not cleared the field. There is a belief that the GOP primary field is not yet set, according to 10 longtime national and state-level Republican operatives interviewed by NBC News, including those directly involved in the race. Many of them requested anonymity to speak candidly.
The thought process that is settling in is that Gaetz sees an opportunity if both Donalds and Casey DeSantis run. A three-way primary in what is now a Republican-leaning state can open up the opportunity for a dark horse candidate to win the GOP nomination with just roughly 30% of the vote.
“Matt is always thinking — I could see him seeing a potential multi-way race presenting him an opportunity to re-emerge for a run,” a veteran Florida Republican operative said.
Gaetz, whom Trump initially nominated to be his attorney general — only to see the nomination fall through because of concerns about past sexual misconduct allegations — is doing nothing to downplay increasing chatter he is again seriously considering a run for governor. Gaetz, who is a news anchor for the conservative TV network OAN, has repeatedly denied the allegations of sexual misconduct.
“I host a television show on One American News,” he told NBC News on Monday. “Casey is right about one thing: It’s very early. Many tectonic plates can shift in Florida in the next year or so.”
Casey DeSantis told reporters this month that she understands why “it’s a big conversation, but I will also say it’s more than a year away from qualifying.”Gaetz had been widely believed to be considering running for state attorney general, but that changed over the past few weeks as he started posting publicly about his support for a potential Casey DeSantis campaign.
Gaetz’s praise was notable; he had frequently gone after Casey DeSantis, including on his OAN show, around the Hope Florida scandal.
“Matt is using the patented tried and true Gaetz backhanded compliment,” a longtime Republican Florida operative involved in the race said. “He believes a three-way race would benefit him, and he is thinking ‘Why not me?’ on a double [Trump] endorsement.”
Republicans in the Legislature had been investigating whether DeSantis’ administration illegally used $10 million tied to a federal Medicaid settlement to help defeat a 2024 ballot measure to legalize recreational marijuana in the state. One of the groups the money flowed through along the way was Hope Florida, organization tied to the first lady.
The Legislature has dropped its probe, but the Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald reported Tuesday that the effort is now being investigated by Leon County prosecutor Jack Campbell.
On Tuesday, Ron DeSantis defended Hope Florida, which aims to offer grants to help low-income state residents become more financially self-sufficient.
“I believe in this program deeply, and I stand by it 100%,” DeSantis said.
Donalds is considered the front-runner in large part because of the Trump endorsement but also because he has already raised more than $14 million — including a significant amount from Trump’s national fundraising network. Major national donors to Donalds include Jeff Yass ($5 million), Richard Uihlein ($1 million) and Thomas Peterffy ($1 million).
Casey DeSantis, meanwhile, was once seen as almost certain to run to replace her husband, who is term-limited, but the scandal centered on Hope Florida dampened that enthusiasm over the past few weeks.
Last week, however, she and her husband held public events to hype and defend Hope Florida, a signal to many that she is working to wrest back the narrative about the social welfare group — and is still considering running for governor.
A Republican operative familiar with Casey DeSantis’ thinking said the news conference she and the governor held about Hope Florida this week “was intended to be a new trial balloon over a potential candidacy.”
“It seems that there is no one else the governor can find, so he’s back to pushing his wife,” the operative said.
Taryn Fenske, a DeSantis world political operative, declined to comment for this article.
For now, Fenske is among the only consultants working for the DeSantis political machine, which itself is raising questions about that operation. A series of longtime operatives who have worked for Ron DeSantis, including on his failed 2024 presidential bid, are not considering working for Casey DeSantis if she runs. Florida pollster Ryan Tyson, who was a mainstay on Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign, and his top 2024 fundraiser, Makenzi Mahler, are among those who intend to sit out a bid by his wife.
“The first thing you need is a general consultant and a fundraiser,” said a national Republican operative not yet aligned in the race. “She has none. That has to be the starting point, and I don’t know how they get past that.”
Trump did offer a double endorsement in the GOP primary in the Arizona governor’s race, but his advisers told NBC News not to expect him to do it again in any race, including the Florida governor’s contest.
Trump advisers also view Donalds as doing what it takes to signal to Trump that he is willing to work to keep other potential GOP rivals boxed out.
“You have to work for something like this, and we see him doing that,” a Trump adviser said. “There is no reason President Trump would deviate at this point.”
Developments are expected to pick up after Florida’s legislative session, which, after an extension because of a state budget fight, will go through the end of June.
“All eyes are on Casey and what she decides to do,” a longtime Republican familiar with her thought process said. “A post-session decision is expected, and until she decides one way or the other, it all remains in flux.”
