U.S. Treasury yields fell on Tuesday after retail sales narrowed more than Wall Street economists had expected, lifting fixed income prices and raising concern that the economy is headed for a slowdown or even a recession.
Retail sales dropped by 0.9% in May according to the Census Bureau, worse than the 0.6% contraction that had been estimated by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. Excluding automobiles, sales last month eased by 0.3%, underperforming the Street’s expectation for a 0.1% increase. Gas station sales slid 2% in the month, which can reflect both lower prices but possibly slower economic activity.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 3 basis points to 4.424%, while the 2-year Treasury yield was lower by more than 1 basis point to 3.958%.
One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%, and bond yields and prices move inversely, meaning prices are higher Tuesday.
Also lifting the bond market was President Donald Trump’s early departure from the Group of Seven summit Monday, signaling a possible escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict.Trump said his early exit was due to “much bigger” events in the Middle East, while calling on Iranians to “immediately evacuate Tehran” in anticipation of Israeli bombardment.
“Indeed, there have been no signs of de-escalation in the aerial war, with reports of explosions again in Tehran overnight, while Iran launched more missiles into Israel,” Deutsche Bank wrote in a note published Tuesday. “There are still big questions as to whether Israel would be receptive to a ceasefire, given that it is seeking to destroy Iran’s nuclear program,” the bank said.
The conflict between Israel and Iran entered a fifth day Tuesday with no signs of fewer attacks. Both nations issued new evacuation orders as missiles continued to rain down.
Without Trump, the other six leaders of the Group of Seven wrap up their summit in Alberta, Canada Tuesday with no joint communique expected at the end of the gathering.
