Algiers and Paris are locked in a familiar, almost ritualistic dance of diplomatic escalation.
Barely a week passes without a fresh contretemps, a new dispute injecting poison into their already volatile relationship.
The recent expulsion of French embassy staff by Algiers – a direct response to the arrest in Paris of an Algerian consulate official allegedly embroiled in a kidnapping case – is merely the latest step in this predictable tango.
France is expected to retaliate, prompting another counter-move from Algiers.
This tempestuous je t’aime, moi non plus dynamic – a familiar love-hate relationship characterised by years of turbulence and mistrust – has reached a particularly precarious juncture.
New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch
Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on
Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters
For many observers, it marks an unprecedented low point in Franco-Algerian relations since Algeria’s hard-won independence in 1962.
A central question remains largely unasked: who needs whom more?
Yet a central question remains largely unasked: who needs whom more? Is Paris truly in a position to dictate terms, or does Algiers now possess the leverage it needs? Who, in the end, holds the whip hand?
To answer this question, one must look beyond the familiar narrative of historical grievances, colonial legacies and France’s shifting stance on the Western Sahara.
Rather than these well-rehearsed points of contention, it is the strategic and economic realities now shaping this fraught relationship that will determine the path each country takes – and ultimately, define its future.
A close look at present economic realities reveals a subtle but significant shift in the balance of power – one that suggests Paris may face a more precarious future should this chill harden into a full-blown economic winter.
Economic leverage
The escalating diplomatic friction between Algiers and Paris casts a long shadow over their intertwined economic interests.
Though overt economic retaliation has, for now, remained muted, recent developments signal growing risks.
The Algerian Council for Economic Renewal (Crea) – a national confederation of business owners – abruptly cancelled a meeting with French business leaders at the Movement of the Enterprises of France (Medef). The move was reportedly triggered by French authorities deterring Rodolphe Saade, head of shipping giant CMA CGM, from pursuing Algerian port investments.
Can France and Algeria patch things up?
Read More »
The decision serves as a potent early warning of the fragility of commercial ties should the current tensions escalate.
Adding to the strain, Algeria has recently excluded France from crucial wheat import tenders – a direct consequence of the diplomatic chill.
Veteran Algeria-based businessman Michel Bisac issued a stark warning to AFP: a severe Algerian reaction, he said, could instantly wipe out €5bn ($5.6bn) in French exports. His remarks reflect mounting anxiety within French business circles.
For now, the bilateral economic ledger appears relatively stable, with overall trade contracting by a modest 4.3 percent. French enterprises continue to hold a notable – albeit gradually shrinking – presence in Algeria, with substantial investments in key sectors such as hydrocarbons (Total), pharmaceuticals (Sanofi, Aventis), and banking and agriculture (Societe Generale, BNP Paribas, Natixis).
However, this surface-level resilience belies deeper vulnerabilities, particularly for France.
In 2023, Algeria’s exports to France, mostly in energy (oil and gas), reached a substantial $7.2bn, with an average annual growth of 8.1 percent over the previous five years.
That same year, Algeria supplied 8 percent of France’s gas. While existing long-term contracts make a complete rupture in supply unlikely in the short term, such a scenario would still force Paris to seek more expensive alternatives from providers such as Qatar or the US. This shift would carry significant logistical and financial costs.
Meanwhile, French exports to Algeria – valued at $4.6bn in 2023 – have been shrinking, declining by an average of 5.4 percent annually over the past five years.
Shifting ties
It is worth noting that while the legacy of the Franco-Algerian relationship is reflected in the continued operation of some 450 French companies leveraging established market expertise, the evolving economic landscape is seeing other actors gain significant ground.
Despite a less prominent historical presence, Turkey now boasts a far larger contingent of around 1,400 registered companies in Algeria, underscoring that historical ties do not guarantee present-day economic dominance.
A crucial asymmetry lies in the diversity of economic options available to each country. Algeria has strategically broadened its horizons, actively cultivating partnerships with major economic powers such as the US, China, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Germany and Italy.
The latter has become a particularly close partner. The Eni-Sonatrach agreement of April 2022 positioned Algeria as Italy’s primary gas supplier, meeting 39 percent of its import needs.
The two countries are also deepening cooperation on renewable energy, such as the Southern Hydrogen Corridor project (SoutH2Corridor), as well as in industry and agriculture.
This diversification mitigates Algeria’s dependence on France as a primary trading hub. Bolstering this position, Algeria’s record-breaking natural gas production in 2023, coupled with its expanding liquefied natural gas export capacity, which saw the highest growth rate in the Arab world that year, provides it with significant leverage in energy negotiations.
It also offers alternative markets in a gas-hungry Europe, should the relationship with key client France deteriorate.
In 2024, Algeria was the EU’s fourth-largest gas supplier, accounting for nearly 15 percent of its imports – a clear indication of its growing importance to European energy security. The EU also remains Algeria’s foremost trading partner, with a trade agreement in place since 2005 mandating the phased and mutual removal of import tariffs on goods.
The Algerian president has declared his intention to renegotiate this agreement beginning in 2025 – a process in which Algeria will likely seek the support of France, a key player at the EU level.
Diversification drive
Beyond cultivating diverse partnerships, Algeria is actively transforming its economic foundations. World Bank data indicates that non-hydrocarbon exports have tripled since 2017, reaching $5.1bn in 2023.
This marks a deliberate shift towards reducing the country’s reliance on oil and gas, while also aiming to attract greater foreign investment.
Conversely, while Algeria remains a significant export destination for France – €4.8bn ($5.4bn) in 2024, a 6.6 percent increase from 2023 – its relative importance within France’s broader and more sophisticated global trade network is limited.
Should the political brinkmanship persist, the scales appear to be tipping: Paris may face a greater downside than Algiers
France, with a higher Economic Complexity Index and substantially greater overall exports, has a stronger capacity to absorb the loss of the Algerian market than Algeria does the reverse.
Even so, the anxieties expressed by French small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which make up the majority of the nearly 6,000 French firms engaged with Algeria, are telling. These more fragile entities are already feeling the strain from issues such as customs delays.
While France’s diversified economy might ultimately weather a complete loss of the Algerian market, finding replacements would require considerable effort and the immediate impact on SMEs could be significant.
In essence, while the economic ramifications of escalating diplomatic tensions remain contained for now, the underlying dynamics suggest a shifting balance – with Algeria growing more assertive in its economic dealings.
Should the political brinkmanship persist, the scales appear to be tipping: Paris may face a greater downside than Algiers.
Security stakes
The intricate and often acrimonious relationship between Algiers and Paris extends far beyond immediate diplomatic sparring or economic calculations. Beneath the surface lie critical concerns around security, migration, and the deeply intertwined human dimension represented by the Algerian diaspora in France.
The strategic landscape of the Sahel underscores Algeria’s enduring – if somewhat tested – regional importance. While Algiers has seen a slight dip in influence, France’s approach to the region, increasingly viewed as militarised and neo-colonial, has backfired. Paris is now largely unwelcome across the Sahel.
France and Algeria rocked by ‘most serious’ diplomatic crisis since end of colonial rule
Read More »
In this volatile context, Algeria’s geographical proximity, its longstanding intelligence networks and its strategic depth remain essential assets – particularly in the fight against terrorism. France, having withdrawn Operation Barkhane, cannot afford to cut itself off from Algeria’s intelligence apparatus. This reality was quietly acknowledged during the discreet high-level visit to Algiers by French foreign intelligence agency chief Nicolas Lerner.
The imperative of regional stability demands continued – albeit recalibrated – security cooperation, with Algeria’s central role firmly recognised.
Migration patterns form another critical – and often contentious – layer in the Franco-Algerian relationship. France’s ability to manage irregular migration, ensure border security and implement deportation policies is closely tied to Algeria’s cooperation.
A complete breakdown in that cooperation would pose serious challenges for Paris. While France has its own immigration frameworks, Algeria’s role as both a source and transit country makes it an indispensable partner in managing these complex flows. This reality calls for a pragmatic approach and the maintenance of functional bilateral agreements.
Human cost
The turbulent relationship between Algiers and Paris continues to weigh heavily on the substantial Algerian diaspora in France.
Numbering nearly 650,000 in 2024, with an additional 1.2 million descendants, this community often faces heightened anxiety during periods of diplomatic crisis.
These tensions can manifest in increased scrutiny and political scapegoating, particularly by far-right actors seeking to exploit anti-immigrant sentiment.
France’s ‘crisis’ with Islam: A legacy of 200 years of colonial brutality
Read More »
Even longstanding agreements that underpin their legal status, such as the 1968 migration pact, risk being turned into bargaining chips, casting a pall of uncertainty over their future and underscoring the human stakes of this fraught bilateral relationship.
Ultimately, if the Franco-Algerian relationship is to navigate the present turbulence, a fundamental recalibration will be essential. Sustained diplomatic engagement is crucial. Yet France’s diminished diplomatic corps – halved over the past three decades – struggles to meet the demands of the moment.
This challenge is compounded by overlapping commentary from the interior ministry, which often undermines France’s foreign policy coherence and weakens its diplomatic leverage.
Looking ahead, Paris must present a unified diplomatic front. Algiers, for its part, will need to continue diversifying its alliances without jeopardising a longstanding – and still vital – economic partnership with France.
In a globalised Mediterranean marked by growing competition, de-escalation remains the only viable path forward. However, it will require both capitals to move beyond reactive tit-for-tat escalation and commit to a more strategic long-term vision.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
