After the Syrian people succeeded in toppling former President Bashar al-Assad, the region’s geopolitical dynamics underwent a seismic shift.
With Assad gone, Israel began to act aggressively against the new Syrian administration and its allies, particularly Turkey. Israel targeted hundreds of military installations and equipment stockpiles across Syria, aiming to prevent the new government from consolidating control over the country and achieving stability.
Beyond air strikes, Israel sought to incite sectarian divisions among the Druze, Kurds and Alawites, encouraging fragmentation and internal strife.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has attempted to rally opposition to the new Syrian leadership and Turkey by lobbying the Trump administration to maintain a US presence in Syria, to continue supporting YPG Kurdish militia, and even to invite Russia back into key military bases to counterbalance Ankara’s influence.
During his recent visit to Washington, however, Netanyahu encountered resistance from US President Donald Trump that he did not anticipate.
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Also last month, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan issued a stern warning to all actors seeking to destabilise Syria. After a cabinet meeting in Ankara, he said: “Let me be clear: whoever stands in the way of Syria’s path to lasting peace and stability will find both the Syrian government and Turkey standing against them.”
This statement underscored Turkey’s determination to safeguard both its own interests and regional stability.
Israel, undeterred by Erdogan’s warning, escalated its efforts. A recent Israeli air strike near the presidential palace in Damascus sent a threatening message to the Syrian leadership, with Netanyahu and and Defence Minister Israel Katz saying in a statement: “This is a clear message to the Syrian regime. We will not allow forces to be sent south of Damascus or any threat to the Druze community.”
‘Reckless actions’
Syria’s presidency condemned the Israeli strike as a “reprehensible attack [that] reflects the continued reckless actions seeking to destabilise the country and exacerbate security crises”. In a statement urging Arab countries and the international community to support Syria, the presidency further noted: “Syria will not compromise its sovereignty or security and will continue to defend the rights of its people by all available means.”
Israel has traditionally weaponised minorities in the region to create sectarian strife, encourage separatist ambitions, and fuel internal violence that enables it to act in a favourable environment.
Israel’s recent rampage in Syria puts Turkey, a major regional actor, in the spotlight, especially after the failure of deconfliction talks between Ankara and Tel Aviv last month in Azerbaijan. This highlights the futility of dialogue until Israel halts its interference in Syria.
If Sharaa is not empowered to fulfill his role, then no matter what actions he takes on the political, economic and security fronts, they are destined to fail
If Turkey continues issuing warnings without preparing to repel Israeli attacks, it risks undermining its credibility, which could have severe consequences. Should Israel persist in its destabilisation strategy, Turkey will bear the brunt of the chaos spilling over from Syria.
The international community’s silence on Israel’s rampage in Syria poses another challenge. Turkey should elevate this issue via global platforms, framing it alongside Israel’s destabilising policies in Gaza, the occupied West Bank, Lebanon and elsewhere. In this way, Turkey can highlight the broader implications of Israeli aggression, and galvanise global pressure.
The regional security mechanism championed by Ankara to support Syria should accelerate its work, in order to avoid spillover violence that could affect Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and other countries. States across the region are already grappling with economic and political challenges, alongside mounting public anger over Israeli policies.
Most importantly, Turkey should urgently operationalise its ties with the US, or prepare for alternative scenarios if cooperation is stymied by the pro-Israel and anti-Turkey hawks within the Trump administration.
Five critical points
Erdogan should articulate five critical points to Trump. Firstly, if Israel continues its destabilisation efforts, other regional actors could step in and expand its influence in Syria and beyond. For example, Israeli aggression could legitimise Tehran’s actions in the eyes of many people across the region. Such a situation could swiftly lead to spillover violence in fragile neighbouring states.
Secondly, Israel’s provocations leave Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa with two equally perilous options: either retaliate in an asymmetric way, potentially triggering war, or remain silent, thus appearing weak and incompetent, which will delegitimise him internally. Either scenario creates fertile ground for radicalism to flourish.
Thirdly, Israel’s weaponisation of Syrian minorities risks unleashing unprecedented sectarian violence. For decades, Sunnis in the region have grown frustrated with western-backed dictators and policies turning minorities against them. If Israel undermines Syria’s newfound hopes for unity and stability, the backlash could transcend borders, threatening allied regimes across the region.
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Fourthly, Israel’s continuous incitement will ultimately drag other countries to Syria’s aid. Competing agendas will drain the resources of the nations involved without benefitting anyone, just like the past 15 years of conflict have done. Money, time, effort and lives will be squandered, while Syria loses its slim chance at stabilisation – and others will likely follow it.
Finally, Israel’s strategy of surrounding itself with failed states might offer temporary comfort, but it will ultimately backfire. As in Afghanistan and Iraq, failed states become breeding grounds for extremism and migration crises. If Syria follows the same path, the US will inevitably be drawn back into the region to support Israel, losing precious resources in an environment where it is overwhelmingly viewed as an adversary.
Taking this all into consideration, Turkey should collaborate with countries across the Middle East and Europe that have a vested interest in a stable and secure region free from Israel’s destabilising policies. Such collaboration will be key to persuading the US to lift sanctions, enabling the new Syrian leadership to navigate the challenges ahead.
If Sharaa is not empowered to fulfil his role, then no matter what actions he takes on the political, economic and security fronts, they are destined to fail. This failure will ultimately rest with the countries undermining Syria’s path towards rebuilding the Syrian state and society.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
