With the collapse of the Soviet Union, political scientist Francis Fukuyama announced, with unprecedented bravado, “the end of history” – declaring the victory of not only the United States over the USSR, but also of liberal democracy and capitalist economics.
The US reshaped the international order. It took Russia two decades to rebuild its strength, declare wars on Georgia and Ukraine, and witness the rise of an emboldened China.
Today, the international system has demonstrated that history did not end at all – and that liberal democracy is in retreat, grappling for its identity and for the global order born out of the Second World War.
With the end of the recent war between Israel and Iran, claims have reemerged that this could give rise to a “new Middle East” – one where Iran’s axis of resistance has been weakened, with its influence rolled back in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza. This echoes claims that have been repeated every decade for the past century.
Ever since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the partitioning of the Middle East by western interests, the refrain has been the same: after every war, a new era will dawn, and the Middle East will flourish. But every military campaign has only planted the seeds for the next conflict.
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Consider the Six-Day War of 1967. Israel defeated three Arab armies and conquered the Sinai Peninsula, the Golan Heights, and the rest of historic Palestine. Yet from this victory emerged its biggest long-term challenge: the rise and entrenchment of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO).
Until then, the PLO had been largely shaped and dominated by Arab regimes, but after the defeat of those regimes, Palestinians asserted their independence within the organisation, aligning it with their own interests rather than those of Arab states that treated Palestine as a political tool.
Undermining democracy
Similarly, after Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982, it achieved a remarkable military feat, swiftly reaching Beirut and occupying the country’s south. But from that victory emerged Hezbollah, a force that has posed a direct and constant threat to Israel for four decades now.
Unlike Arab regimes that often fail to recognise or utilise the strength within their own borders, Israel understands the latent potential of Arab states.
The recurring Israeli fantasy of a ‘new Middle East’ is not only unrealistic; it rests upon demands that no Arab regime can accept
At the outset of the Arab Spring, after the fall of Tunisian leader Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and amid the beginnings of a democratic process in Egypt, Israel acted quickly to undermine that democratic wave, focusing especially on Egypt.
The reason was plain: Egyptian public opinion is largely hostile towards the Camp David Accords and normalisation with Israel. So it came as no surprise when Israel leveraged its influence in Washington to legitimise President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s regime following the 2013 military coup.
The recurring Israeli fantasy of a “new Middle East” is not only unrealistic; it rests upon demands that no Arab regime can accept. Even when states consider making far-reaching compromises, Israel always demands more.
Just weeks before 7 October 2023, Saudi Arabia was reportedly ready to join the Abraham Accords – a move that would effectively empty the Palestinian cause of its meaning – without receiving anything substantial in return, other than increased lobbying power in Washington.
Constant reinvention
After two years of Israeli attacks on Gaza and Lebanon came the unexpected Israeli attack on Iran. The West found itself once again supporting a blatantly illegal campaign that violated international law, risking the lives of millions.
The Israeli and US strikes on nuclear installations risked causing a radiological disaster across multiple nations, and flew in the face of intelligence assessments – showing once again that international law applies only when it serves western interests.
Western leaders have embraced the mantra of a “new Middle East” as if it were gospel. In reality, this term is fiction; the Middle East is perhaps the only place in the world that reinvents itself every decade.
Vital lessons can be drawn from the recent war between Israel and Iran. There was no decisive victory, but both sides exposed their advanced military and intelligence capabilities, while also revealing vulnerabilities. As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu grows stronger domestically and the regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei endures, tensions and future confrontations will likely continue.
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Secondly, Arab states proved how exposed and militarily irrelevant they remain. When drones crashed in Jordan and Iran threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf states could only defend themselves by aligning with Israel and relying on American bases, apparently unable to assert their own role.
This confrontation has exposed Arab nations to two profound threats. Iran will likely try to rebuild its “soft power” across Iraq, Lebanon and Syria, presenting itself as the only force capable of standing up to Israel and the US.
Meanwhile, Israel, emboldened by messianic forces within its government, will pursue policies that could forcibly displace Palestinians from Gaza and the occupied West Bank at the expense of Arab states.
As Israel and Iran jostle for position in the Middle East, much rests upon neighbouring Arab nations. Two years into the Gaza genocide, in a world that has failed to halt the slaughter and starvation of Palestinians, Arab nations must ask deeper questions about the two prevailing approaches that have shaped their politics for decades: pro-western secularism and Islamism. As proponents of each have clashed, Arab peoples have been left exposed and vulnerable.
Perhaps the time has come for Arab nations to pursue a vision for a truly new Middle East: one that serves Arab interests first, and is shaped by Arabs themselves – not by external powers from the West or East.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
